- The RAND report presents a detailed framework for space deterrence, emphasizing the critical role of space assets in national security and military operations.
- The framework outlines three archetypes for space deterrence—Denial dominant, Mixed deterrence, and Offense dominant—and discusses the national approaches of China, Russia, France, Japan, and India.
August 31, 2023, Washington D.C. – As the United States and its allies increasingly rely on space assets for national security and military operations, the RAND Corporation has released a groundbreaking report that provides a comprehensive framework for deterrence in space operations. The report comes at a crucial time when potential adversaries have developed sophisticated means to disrupt or deny access to essential space capabilities.
The Rising Stakes in Space
The national security of the United States and many other countries is highly dependent on information derived from and transmitted through space. Over the past two decades, potential adversaries have developed a wide array of increasingly sophisticated means to disrupt or deny these critical advantages. This urgency has led to a renewed focus on understanding counterspace strategies and how potential adversaries can be deterred from attacking U.S. and allied space assets.
A Framework for the Future
The RAND report fills an analytic gap by presenting a comprehensive framework for space deterrence. It outlines three main archetypes for space deterrence:
- Denial dominant – This approach focuses on resilience, stealth capability, defensive measures, and redundancy.
- Mixed deterrence – A combination of resilience and defensive measures, along with robust active defenses.
- Offense dominant – This approach places emphasis on a wide variety of counterspace weapons capable of severely degrading the space systems of other countries.
Global Perspectives and National Strategies
The report also delves into the national approaches to space deterrence adopted by China, Russia, France, Japan, and India. Each country has its unique conception of space deterrence, ranging from China’s operational concept of gradual escalation in space operations to Russia’s doctrine designed to deter aggression and control escalation through selective targeting.
Lessons from Nuclear and Cyber Deterrence
Drawing from the domains of nuclear and cyber deterrence, the report highlights the importance of credibility, deterrence stability, and the ability to control escalation as key elements in a successful space deterrence strategy.
The Road Ahead
The report concludes that a comprehensive approach to space deterrence—one that seeks to regulate the use of force in space in the interest of stability and allows states to retain some capacity to punish space aggressors—may have the greatest probability of success.
